A rare air battle between Chinese-made Pakistani jets and French-made Indian Rafale fighters is drawing global attention, offering militaries a chance to study modern air combat up close.
At least two Indian aircraft were shot down by a Pakistani jet on Wednesday, according to two U.S. officials who spoke to Reuters. If confirmed, it would mark a significant moment for China’s J-10 fighter, developed for export and now tested in real combat.
The clash presents a unique opportunity for armed forces to assess the performance of aircraft, pilots, and air-to-air missiles under real wartime conditions. Observers say this data could help shape future military strategies, especially amid rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific and over Taiwan.
One U.S. official said with “high confidence” that Pakistan used the Chinese-made J-10 to fire air-to-air missiles at Indian jets. Social media speculation centered on the performance of China’s PL-15 missile compared to Europe’s Meteor missile, though no official confirmation of the weapons used has been given.
“This is a major chance for militaries in China, the U.S., and Europe to learn what equipment worked, what didn’t, and how tactics played out in real time,” said Douglas Barrie, a military aerospace expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Barrie noted that if the PL-15 and Meteor missiles were both involved, this would be the first head-to-head test between two of the world’s most advanced air-to-air weapons. However, details remain unclear.
Dassault Aviation, which builds the Rafale, declined to comment. MBDA, the manufacturer of the Meteor missile, could not be reached due to a public holiday in France.
Still Many Unknowns
Western analysts say many important facts are still missing. It’s uncertain if Indian jets were carrying the Meteor missile or what training the pilots had. Defense companies are also trying to separate a weapon’s technical performance from battlefield conditions.
“There will be deep reviews on what succeeded or failed, but the fog of war always complicates things,” said Byron Callan, a U.S.-based defense analyst.
Callan added that American arms manufacturers regularly receive performance feedback from the war in Ukraine. He expects similar information to circulate between India’s European suppliers and between China and Pakistan.
A Western defense source said an image of a missile seeker shared online might show a Meteor that missed its target. Confusion remains over whether Pakistan is using a downgraded export version of the PL-15 or the same version used by China’s air force. Barrie believes Pakistan likely has the export model.
Some Western experts question whether the rocket-powered PL-15 has longer range than the air-breathing Meteor. Still, they admit its performance may be better than previously thought. Meteor’s range remains classified.
The PL-15 has drawn global interest for years and is seen as evidence of China’s shift from Soviet-era designs to advanced domestic technology. In response, the U.S. is developing the AIM-260 missile through Lockheed Martin to match or surpass the PL-15’s long-range capabilities.
Meanwhile, Europe is working on a mid-life upgrade for the Meteor, including improved propulsion and guidance systems. However, analysts say progress is slow.
To stay ahead, the U.S. recently awarded Boeing a contract to build its next-generation fighter jet, which is expected to include stealth, advanced sensors, and cutting-edge engines.
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