The Social Security retirement trust fund is expected to be depleted by 2033. At that time, it will only be able to pay about 77% of scheduled retirement benefits, according to the latest annual report released Wednesday by the Social Security Board of Trustees. This projection remains unchanged from last year.
The combined Social Security trust funds, which include the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund (OASI) and the Disability Insurance Trust Fund (DI), are projected to be exhausted by 2034. This is one year earlier than last year’s forecast. After depletion, only 81% of scheduled benefits would be payable.
While current law prohibits merging these two funds, Congress has authorized transfers between them in the past to address shortfalls. Notably, the Disability Insurance Trust Fund alone is expected to remain solvent until at least 2099.
The Medicare Hospital Insurance trust fund, which finances Medicare Part A services, is projected to be depleted by 2033—three years earlier than last year’s estimate. After depletion, it would be able to pay about 89% of scheduled benefits.
The report incorporates the effects of the Social Security Fairness Act, which took effect in 2025 and increased benefits for certain public pensioners. This legislation slightly accelerated the depletion timeline.
However, the report does not account for recent proposals on new taxes, tariffs, or immigration enforcement changes. Kathleen Romig, director of Social Security and disability policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, warned that these factors could pose serious risks to Social Security’s financing.
Social Security trust funds are supplemented by payroll tax revenues. Currently, workers pay 6.2% of their wages toward Social Security and 1.45% toward Medicare, with employers matching these amounts. Self-employed individuals pay both portions, totaling 15.3%.
To sustain Social Security and Medicare, Congress may need to increase taxes, reduce benefits, or implement a combination of both.
Approximately 70 million Americans receive Social Security benefits, while about 185 million workers contribute via payroll taxes. Social Security Administration Commissioner Frank Bisignano emphasized that the financial health of the trust funds is a “top priority” and urged Congress to protect and strengthen these funds to secure benefits for millions now and in the future.
Advocacy groups also called on lawmakers to address the looming funding shortfall. AARP CEO Myechia Minter-Jordan stressed the growing importance of Social Security’s stability as America’s population ages.
Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, warned that as depletion dates approach, Congress is running out of time to make gradual changes. Without action, severe benefit cuts, sharp tax increases, or unacceptable borrowing may be necessary.
She noted that based on current projections, Social Security and Medicare will be unable to pay full benefits to today’s retirees. For example, the trust funds will run out when current 59-year-olds reach full retirement age and when the youngest retirees today turn 70.
While Democrats and Republicans are divided on solutions, a recent survey found that 85% of Americans prefer raising taxes rather than cutting benefits to maintain Social Security.
The survey, conducted by the National Academy of Social Insurance, AARP, the National Institute on Retirement Security, and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, polled over 2,200 Americans. The most popular proposal was eliminating the payroll tax cap on earnings above $400,000. Currently, Social Security taxes apply only to wages up to $176,100.
Respondents also favored gradually increasing the payroll tax rate from 6.2% to 7.2% for both workers and employers.
Rebecca Vallas, CEO of the National Academy of Social Insurance, said Americans across party lines, generations, income levels, and education strongly oppose cutting Social Security benefits. Instead, they want lawmakers to secure the program by raising necessary revenues to keep it strong for future generations while improving benefits.
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