Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) is set to release its earnings report on Wednesday, June 11, 2025. Historically, the company’s stock tends to fall after earnings announcements.
Over the past five years, Oracle’s stock dropped on the day following earnings 60% of the time, with a median decline of 4.4% and a maximum single-day fall of 13.5%.
Investors and traders often use these patterns to guide their strategies. Two common approaches include:
Taking a position before earnings based on historical trends.
Adjusting positions after earnings by analyzing short- and medium-term returns.
Analysts expect Oracle to report earnings of $1.64 per share on revenue of $15.58 billion. This would be a slight increase from last year’s same quarter, which saw $1.63 earnings per share and $14.29 billion in sales. The growth is driven mainly by Oracle’s expanding cloud services, particularly its work in generative AI.
Oracle’s market capitalization stands at $471 billion. In the past year, the company generated $56 billion in revenue, $18 billion in operating profit, and $12 billion in net profit. For investors seeking less volatile options, the Trefis High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P 500 with over 91% returns since its start, may be worth considering.
Looking at Oracle’s post-earnings stock performance:
In 20 earnings announcements over five years, Oracle’s stock rose the next day only 40% of the time.
This positive return rate slightly improves to 42% when considering the last three years.
When gains occur, the median rise is about 11%, while median losses on down days are 4.4%.
Some traders use the correlation between one-day and longer-term returns to inform trades. For example, if the one-day and five-day returns after earnings are strongly linked, a positive one-day return might signal holding the stock for several more days.
Oracle’s stock movement can also be influenced by the earnings results of peer companies reporting just before Oracle. These peer performances sometimes affect market expectations and Oracle’s stock reaction.
In summary, while Oracle’s earnings growth and cloud business show promise, historical stock trends suggest caution. Investors should weigh these factors carefully ahead of the June 11 earnings release.
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