BMW has reaffirmed its forecast for 2025, standing out as one of the few automakers with an optimistic outlook amid global trade uncertainty. The German luxury carmaker said on Wednesday it expects some import tariffs on vehicles to ease starting in July 2025.
This comes as many competitors, including Mercedes-Benz, Ford, and Stellantis, have withdrawn their 2025 guidance. They cited the difficulty of making accurate forecasts due to the wide-reaching tariffs in key markets like the United States, the world’s second-largest for cars.
BMW confirmed its previous projection from March remains valid. That outlook had already accounted for the tariffs announced up to that point. The company still expects its 2025 earnings before tax to match last year’s, and it maintains a 5–7% operating margin for its automotive division.
Although BMW acknowledged uncertainty around the current impact of tariffs, it said it believes some of the increases will be temporary and expects reductions by mid-2025.
Investors responded positively. BMW shares were set to open 2% higher, supported by stronger-than-expected first-quarter results. The company’s auto unit posted an operating profit of €2.02 billion ($2.3 billion), beating analysts’ forecast of €1.85 billion, according to a poll by LSEG.
Despite a drop in operating margin to 6.9% from 8.8% a year ago, the result still topped the 6.3% forecast, helped by strong customer demand and tight cost controls.
However, BMW warned that its forecast could still change if tariffs persist or rise further. It also pointed to possible supply chain issues, especially for certain parts or raw materials, as ongoing risks.
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